In 2012 DreamWorks paid mid-six figures for a time-travel script; in 2024 a $3.25 million thriller was called eye-watering
From Glimmer to Alignment: Two Eras of the Spec Sale
In 2012 DreamWorks paid mid-six figures for a time-travel script; in 2024 a $3.25 million thriller was called eye-watering
A 2012 Bidding War
On June 6, 2012, Lucas Shaw reported in TheWrap that DreamWorks had won the rights to a spec script called Glimmer in a competitive auction. The writer was Carter Blanchard, the price was mid-six figures and the script was a science-fiction story combining time travel and found footage. Madhouse Entertainment’s Adam Kolbrenner was to produce, with Robyn Meisinger and Ryan Cunningham as executive producers.
The article described Blanchard’s recent sales: he had sold Near Death to Fox Searchlight and had Dead Asleep set up at Contrafilm, and he had written a draft of Universal’s Immortals. It contains no direct quotes. The other bidders were not named.
A 2024 Sale
Twelve years later, Lynn Q. Yu wrote that Alignment, by Natan Dotan, sold in late November 2024 for $3.25 million, in what she called an eye-watering price. Dotan was an industry unknown. Final Draft review reports the sale as a preemptive deal at $1.25 million against $3 million if produced, so the headline figure and the contract terms are not the same thing.
The comparison of the two sales is therefore not exact. Glimmer’s price is reported as a range, mid-six figures. Alignment’s is reported two ways. Nevertheless the scale of the largest spec sales has clearly grown.
What Stayed the Same
Several features connect the two eras. Both scripts rested on a concept that could be explained in a sentence. Both sales involved competition among buyers. Both writers came to the sale with some track record, in Blanchard’s case several earlier sales and in Dotan’s case none that the sources mention, although Yu calls him an unknown.
Genre also persists. Glimmer was science fiction and Alignment is a thriller about artificial intelligence, a link to the technology of its time as Glimmer’s found footage was to 2012’s.
What Changed
Yu writes that the 1990s were the era of million-dollar spec sales and that the rock-and-roll era ended, before the market recovered in the past couple of years. If so, the 2012 sale falls in the quieter middle period. The sources do not provide the number of spec sales in each year, so the comparison cannot be made precisely.
The context also changed. After the 2023 strikes, television jobs fell 42 percent in 2023-24, according to Yu’s citation of a guild report, and writers turned toward features. The 2012 market did not have the same pressure from the television side.
Reading Historic Sales
Old sale reports are useful but need care. Prices are often given as ranges, deals include contingent payments and later events can change a script’s fate. Glimmer’s article tells us what a studio paid; it does not tell us whether the film was made. A writer who studies old sales should look at what happened afterwards.
They should also compare like with like. A mid-six-figure price in 2012 is not equivalent to the same figure today, and inflation, the number of buyers and the state of the market all matter.
Who Is Buying
In 2012, TheWrap reported that DreamWorks bought Glimmer, a studio with a close link to a famous science-fiction director, which the article mentions in connection with the script’s subject. In 2024, buyers named in the sources include Fifth Season and Makeready, Searchlight, 20th Century Studios, Lionsgate and Amazon MGM. The list of buyers has widened to include streaming-era companies and finance-backed production firms.
For a writer, the widening list is both an opportunity and a complication. There are more places to send a script, but the preferences of each buyer have to be learned, and an unrepresented writer will struggle to reach them.
The Writer’s Track Record
Blanchard had sold other scripts before Glimmer, and Dotan, by Yu’s description, was an unknown. Both facts matter. A track record helps get a script read, but a strong script can still find a buyer without one. The 2024 sale shows that the market was willing to pay a large price for a writer with no visible history.
Writers should avoid taking either as typical. Most writers who sell a spec have prior credits or representation, and the unknown who sells for millions is exceptional.
Lessons
The shared lesson is that clear concepts, strong lead roles and writers with some credibility attract competition. The differing lesson is that the amounts at stake, the buyers and the routes into the business change, and writers should look at current conditions as well as history.
For those planning a spec, the practical step is to read recent sales coverage in the trades and in writers’ blogs, note which buyers are active and what they bought, and compare it with their own idea honestly.
A Note From the Comic Press
Comic writers work the same news cycle from another angle. A recent run of dispatches on a property slump in Cebu shows the form: Manila News on slow condominium sales in Cebu, the London Prat on British pensioners asked for referees and a letter from the vicar (at https://prat.uk/cebu-estate-agents-demand-character-references/) and Bohiney on an Ohio realtor whose showings now last two hours. Each is anchored to a real market story and uses exaggeration openly. More is at prat.uk and bohiney.com.
For the lighter side of the news, there is always NewsThump.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/cebu-realtor-cant-sell-beachfront-listings/