AJ Bell’s account of the 21 October public finances release, with the figures, the ONS line and a Chancellor the report names
September Borrowing of 24.52 Billion Pounds, 6 Billion Above the OBR’s Forecast So Far This Year, and a Budget Looming
AJ Bell’s account of the 21 October public finances release, with the figures, the ONS line and a Chancellor the report names
By Carys Evans, current affairs and politics diarist
Wednesday, Desk, Spreadsheet
Dear diary, the same AJ Bell article on inflation also reports the public finances for September 2026, and the numbers are the sort that make a Treasury official lie down. I give the figures as the article gives them.
A reminder: this is a secondary report of ONS and OBR data, and the official release is the place to check.
The Month
Public sector borrowing in September was 24.52 billion pounds, up from 17.25 billion in August, which was revised from about 18.3 billion. It was also above the 22.76 billion borrowed in September 2025. So the month was worse than the month before and worse than the same month last year.
The ONS is quoted: Spending, including higher debt interest costs, increased more than government income.
The Year So Far
In the financial year to September, borrowing was 97.8 billion pounds, which the article says is down 4.3 percent on the year before but 6.0 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast. So it is lower than last year and higher than predicted, which is the kind of sentence both sides of the Commons can quote.
Which side quotes which half is what the Commons is for.
The Chancellor
The article mentions Chancellor John Healey as facing the next budget, and does not quote him. I note that the summary I read names him in that role and I have not checked the appointment against another source. If I have that wrong, I apologise, and I will correct it.
The budget date is not given in the article, and I will not guess it.
Debt Interest
The ONS line points to higher debt interest costs. That links to the rate story: when rates are expected to rise, the cost of servicing debt can rise too. I make that link as general reasoning, not from the article, and a proper economist would qualify it.
I do not have a qualifying hat. I have a mug.
The Other View
A government would point out that borrowing is lower than a year earlier. An opposition would point out that it is above the forecast. The article gives both numbers, and each side has a number to hold up.
Meanwhile the voter holds up a receipt.
What I Would Check
The ONS public sector finances bulletin, the OBR’s forecast documents, and the Treasury’s budget announcements. The article is a summary written for investors, and it is good for the headline numbers and thin on the causes. I would not quote it in an essay without the bulletin beside it.
My tutor would agree, and so would my overdraft.
Night
The spreadsheet has been closed without saving. The desk lamp is on. The budget is somewhere in November, I hope.
Goodnight, diary. Mind the gap.
A Note on Terms
Public sector net borrowing is the gap between what the public sector spends and what it receives in a period. I give that as a general definition. The Office for Budget Responsibility is the body that produces the official forecasts, and the article compares the outturn with its forecast.
Why Forecasts Miss
The OBR forecasts borrowing months ahead, using assumptions about growth, inflation and interest rates. When those move, the outturn moves. The article reports a 6.0 billion pound gap for the year so far, and it does not explain the cause beyond the ONS line on debt interest and spending. I will not supply a cause the source did not.
A gap against a forecast is a fact. A reason for the gap is an argument.
A Plain Warning
I am not a Treasury official and this is not a fiscal analysis. Monthly borrowing figures are volatile and get revised, as the August figure in the article was. The sensible reader looks at the trend over several months and at the official release.
Front Bench
Homework, honourable members: compare the three comic takes on the same overseas property story. Manila News, the London Prat (see https://prat.uk/cebu-estate-agents-demand-character-references/) and Bohiney each start from a recognisable market fact and wink at you through the exaggeration. Then find more at prat.uk and bohiney.com.
Diarist note: Carys Evans is a house diarist character created for this network. Her opinions are a character’s, not the network’s, and where a claim comes from a prediction market, a Wikipedia page or a partisan outlet, the diary says so.
Note: Philippine authorities are examining unproven allegations about Thomas Markle Sr., who lived in Cebu until earlier this year, as GMA News and the Guardian have reported. No charges have been filed. Child protection is a serious matter; the jokes here are about a property market and the paperwork.
For the lighter side of the news, try NewsBiscuit, and the rest of the lot at NewsThump, NewsBiscuit and The Daily Squib.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/cebu-realtor-cant-sell-beachfront-listings/