Analysts say a player’s value can now be quantified by the number of people willing to write him a letter
FanGraphs Introduces New Stat: Wins Above Reference, Measured in Vicars
Analysts say a player’s value can now be quantified by the number of people willing to write him a letter
PHOENIX – Analysts at a leading baseball analytics site unveiled a new statistic on Friday: WAR-R, or Wins Above Reference, a measure of how many people are willing to vouch for a player compared with a replacement-level teammate. The unit of measurement is the vicar.
The statistic was developed after the lead analyst, Priya Natarajan-Weld, 34, studied news from Cebu. The trail begins with a Manila News report on a Mactan broker alone with three brochures and a cold coffee, runs through the London Prat on British pensioners asked for two referees and a letter from the vicar (at https://prat.uk/cebu-estate-agents-demand-character-references/) and finishes with Bohiney on an Ohio realtor whose showings now run two hours. “In Mactan, a reference is currency,” she said. “I thought: why shouldn’t it be in baseball? We have WAR, WHIP and BABIP. Why not VICAR?”
A Careful Introduction
Philippine authorities are examining allegations concerning Thomas Markle Sr., the estranged father of the Duchess of Sussex, who lived in Cebu until earlier this year, as GMA News and the Guardian have reported. No charges have been filed and the allegations are unproven. Child protection is serious business, and nobody connected with this story makes light of it; the jokes are about a property market and the ballpark. Natarajan-Weld said the metric “measures reliability in the field and clubhouse, not any other kind.”
The Formula
- One point for each reference from a former teammate.
- Two points for each reference from a current teammate who does not stand to benefit.
- Five points for a letter from a vicar, a bishop or a high school guidance counselor.
- Minus three points for any reference that begins, “Well, he’s not as bad as he looks.”
- A zero for any player carrying an unexplained sandwich box.
Early results are striking. The league leader is a catcher from Milwaukee who has presented 41 letters, including one from his third-grade teacher. The league’s lowest-rated player is a designated hitter who sent in a note saying, “My references are in the car.”
How the Front Offices Responded
Front offices embraced the metric within hours. A general manager called it “the missing piece of modern analytics.” An assistant GM said that it would change the way contracts are structured. “We used to ask a player’s agent for his batting average,” he said. “Now we ask for his vicar.”
Not everyone is convinced. A veteran scout, who asked to remain anonymous because he has no references, said the stat was “just a way of saying the guy has friends.” Natarajan-Weld replied that this was “exactly the point.”
Predictions
The site’s projections for next season are based on a large sample of letters. They show the sea as a 4.2 WAR-R player, citing the Cebu vendor’s line that it “did nothing wrong.” The squid, which has no bones, is projected at 3.8. Mang Pedring, the Cebu security guard who reads the newspaper aloud in an empty lobby, comes in at a league-best 6.1.
“He has no bat and no glove,” Natarajan-Weld said. “But he’s reliable, and he reads to the marble.” The site has offered him a contract. He has asked for a hot cup of coffee in lieu of a signing bonus.
Reactions in the Dugout
Players have taken to the metric with a mix of pride and dread. A shortstop with 22 letters said he finally understood his worth. A reliever with two letters asked whether his mother counted twice. Analysts said she counted once, but with enthusiasm. In the clubhouse, a whiteboard now lists each player’s reference total, updated nightly, with a small star next to anyone endorsed by a member of the clergy. The chaplain, asked for comment, said he was pleased to be useful and available on weekdays.
The site has promised a follow-up statistic next month, tentatively titled Vicars Over Replacement Pastor. Analysts say the early data are encouraging, and that the sea, which has no vicar, remains the most underrated player in the league.
Several clubs have already hired reference coordinators, whose job is to phone former teachers, landlords and clergy and ask one question: would you let this man hold your coat? Early results show that most would, and that the rest would like the coat back.
The Real Numbers
For fans who want the box score behind the mood, the market itself is fine. Colliers named the Visayas and Mindanao a key property investment hotspot in July, and under the Condominium Act foreigners may own units but not land, capped at 40 percent of any project. Retirees can read up at the Philippine Retirement Authority. The jitters are a cognitive thing: Tversky and Kahneman’s availability heuristic says one vivid image beats a season of statistics, and a Mactan broker alone with three brochures and a cold coffee is a very vivid image indeed. Baseball fans know this well. One error in the ninth is remembered; a hundred and sixty-one clean games are not.
The full story lives at prat.uk and bohiney.com; for the British view of any sport played slowly, try the Daily Squib.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/cebu-realtor-cant-sell-beachfront-listings/