As forecasters track the possibility of a strong El Nino this winter, surf shops report record sales of step-up boards, and beach towns brace for both epic swells and epic erosion
The Magic Words
HUNTINGTON BEACH. There are few phrases capable of making a Southern California surfer drop a breakfast burrito in excitement. Firing is one. Overhead and glassy is another. But no words carry quite the mythical power of super El Nino. This autumn, those words are back in circulation, as forecasters track the potential for a strong El Nino this winter, and Surfline has launched a Super El Nino surf, swell and storm tracker for 2026 to 2027.
Older surfers still speak in hushed tones about the El Nino winters of the past, when powerful storms sent swells marching toward California, rearranging sandbars, shaking coastal towns and producing sessions that have been retold so many times they now include waves roughly twice the size they actually were.
What El Nino Means
El Nino refers to a warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific that shifts weather patterns around the world. For California, strong El Nino years have historically been associated with a more active winter storm track, which can mean larger and more frequent swells, heavy rain and significant coastal erosion. But forecasters are careful to stress that every El Nino is different, and that a strong signal does not guarantee a particular outcome for any given beach.
Surfers are less careful. A Huntington Beach surfer said he had already told his boss he would be unavailable from December to March. He asked why, the surfer said. I said El Nino. He said that is not a reason. I said, it is the only reason.
The Step-Up Rush
Surf shops report that customers are preparing for big waves. Step-up boards, slightly longer and thicker than everyday shortboards, designed for larger surf, have become a hot topic in shaping bays from Oceanside to Santa Barbara. Shapers describe a familiar pattern: every time El Nino appears in the headlines, orders for bigger boards rise, many from surfers who have not ridden anything larger than head-high in a decade.
A shaper in Costa Mesa said he was happy for the business but realistic about his customers. Every El Nino, the same guys order a big-wave gun, he said. Then the swell comes. They drive to the beach. They look at it. They go home and watch it on a webcam. I have sold some of these guys three guns. They are in perfect condition. Never touched water.
The Erosion Side
Not everyone welcomes El Nino with the same enthusiasm. Coastal communities from Pacifica to San Diego have learned that strong storms can erode beaches, damage homes, flood roads and disrupt railways. In September, the remnants of Hurricane Marie flooded parts of the Southern California coast, damaging homes in Dana Point and washing out the access road at Lower Trestles during a professional contest, a reminder of what powerful surf can do. Planners for the 2028 Olympic surfing venue are already watching the beach closely.
A homeowner in a beachfront neighbourhood said she was torn. My son surfs, she said. He wants big waves. I own a house twenty feet from the sand. I want small waves. We have agreed to pray to different gods this winter.
The Forecast Addiction
El Nino seasons also bring a surge in forecast obsession. Surfers who usually check the surf report twice a day begin checking it twice an hour, studying buoy readings, swell periods and storm tracks with the intensity of day traders. Group chats fill with screenshots of swell models, arguments about wind direction and the eternal question of whether the forecast is overcalling it.
A San Diego surfer admitted his habit had become a problem. I wake up at four to check the buoys, he said. I check again at five. At six I drive to the beach to check in person. At seven I check the webcam from the parking lot to see if it looks better on the screen. My wife says I have a problem. I say I have a passion. The buoys say nothing. They just keep reading.
Managing Expectations
Meteorologists have tried, with limited success, to temper the excitement. Seasonal forecasts deal in probabilities, not promises, and even a strong El Nino can deliver patchy results along specific stretches of coast. A local weather enthusiast summed up the dilemma. Every El Nino, the surfers expect 1983, he said. Sometimes they get it. Sometimes they get rain, closeouts and brown water from the storm drains. Nobody makes a surf movie about the brown water.
Water Quality Warning
That brown water is worth a serious note. Heavy rains in Southern California wash pollutants and bacteria from streets into the ocean, and health officials routinely advise avoiding contact with ocean water for several days after significant rainfall, especially near storm drains, creeks and river mouths. In a wet El Nino winter, those advisories can be frequent. The best swell of the season is no fun if it comes with a week of stomach trouble.
The Last Word
For now, Southern California waits. Boards are waxed, wetsuits are patched and surf reports are refreshed obsessively. Whether this winter delivers the legendary swells of surfer folklore or a few decent days and a lot of rain, the anticipation alone has already done something remarkable: it has made every surfer in the region feel seventeen again, staring at the ocean, waiting for the storm. As one Malibu veteran put it, watching a small, wind-blown swell roll in on a grey October afternoon: It is coming. It is always coming. And if it does not come, there is always next year.