The final-stretch governor’s poll from the Alabama Daily News, with the sample, the margin of error and the publisher’s own caution
Tuberville 51.2, Jones 40.0: The Cygnal Poll for Gray Media and the Alabama Daily News, 16 and 17 October, Read by a Diarist With No Vote and a Lot of Footnotes
The final-stretch governor’s poll from the Alabama Daily News, with the sample, the margin of error and the publisher’s own caution
By Astrid Holgersson, diarist of antebellum Southern literature and Alabama politics
Monday, Porch Swing, Late October Light
Dear diary, I am Astrid Holgersson, a diarist of antebellum Southern literature who follows Alabama politics at a distance, and no relation to anyone you know by that name. Fox 10 reported on 20 October 2026 on a poll for Gray Media Alabama and the Alabama Daily News, conducted by Cygnal on 16 and 17 October, which has Republican Tommy Tuberville ahead of Democrat Doug Jones in the governor’s race. Election Day is 3 November.
I give the poll as reported. It is a snapshot, polls have margins of error, and nothing here is voting advice. For how and when to vote in Alabama, use the Secretary of State’s official site or vote.gov.
The Numbers
The report says Tuberville had 51.2 percent, with 41.0 definitely and 10.2 probably, and Jones 40.0 percent, with 36.3 definitely and 3.7 probably. Undecided voters were 8.9 percent. The sample was 500 likely 2026 voters statewide, reached by online panel and text message, weighted to a likely voter universe.
The margin of error is listed as 4 percent in the body and plus or minus 4.38 percent in the methodology note, so I use the larger. The difference between the two figures is itself a small footnote.
Favourability
The report gives Tuberville 47.6 percent favourable and 43.7 percent unfavourable, and Jones 41.7 percent favourable and 43.3 percent unfavourable. It says 41.9 percent think the state is going in the right direction, 44.6 percent the wrong track, and 13.4 percent are unsure.
A candidate with a lead and a mixed favourability rating is a common sight in a poll, and I draw no conclusion from it.
The Quote
Todd Stacy, publisher of the Alabama Daily News, one of the poll’s sponsors, says Alabama remains a strongly Republican state, and that national Democratic headwinds are not enough, according to the poll, to put Tuberville in much danger. He also says Jones needs the wrong-track number to climb.
I note that the person interpreting the poll is a sponsor of it, which is normal and worth saying.
Other Findings
The report says undecided voters leaned Republican on the generic ballot, and that Democrats led only in the Montgomery-Selma, Dothan and Columbus, Georgia, regions. It adds that Barry Moore is the Republican candidate for the Senate seat, and that fewer than 1 percent of respondents backed both Moore and Jones.
The last finding is a tidy way of saying that very few people split their ticket in this sample.
The Other View
A Tuberville supporter would say the poll confirms a comfortable lead. A Jones supporter would say that 40 percent is within reach of a good turnout, that undecided voters can break either way, and that a sample of 500 is small. All of that is arithmetic. The report quotes only Stacy, and I do not invent quotes for either campaign.
A diary is allowed to hold both thoughts and still not predict.
A Note on Polls
From general knowledge, and not from the report: polls estimate opinion at a moment and not the result, and likely-voter models can miss. A poll with 500 respondents has a large margin. If you want a sense of the race, read several polls from different pollsters and look at the range.
I will do the same, with tea.
Night
The porch swing creaks. The light is going. The poll is on the screen.
Goodnight, diary. Check the official sources.
A Note on Dates
The poll was taken on 16 and 17 October, and the election is on 3 November. In the days between, opinion can move, and some voters will have voted early or by absentee ballot. I mention it because a snapshot taken before a surge or a fall tells us little about the end of the story.
Porch Swing
On the Tube I read the comic papers, because the briefing notes are in my other bag. This week the big joke was property: Manila News on slow condo sales in Cebu, the London Prat on retirees asked for character references (it is at https://prat.uk/cebu-estate-agents-demand-character-references/) and Bohiney on a realtor with unsellable beachfront listings. Exaggeration all the way down, but anchored to a real market story. More at prat.uk and bohiney.com.
Diarist note: Astrid Holgersson is a house diarist character created for this network. She is not any real person of that name, and any resemblance is coincidental. Her opinions are a character’s, and where a claim comes from a poll sponsor, a campaign or a Wikipedia page, the diary says so. Nothing here is voting advice.
Note: Philippine authorities are examining unproven allegations about Thomas Markle Sr., who lived in Cebu until earlier this year, as GMA News and the Guardian have reported. No charges have been filed. Child protection is a serious matter; the jokes here are about a property market and the paperwork.
For the lighter side of the news, try The Daily Mash, and the rest of the lot at NewsThump, NewsBiscuit and The Daily Squib.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/cebu-realtor-cant-sell-beachfront-listings/