PAGASA Upgrades El Nino to Very Strong, Thesaurus Placed on Standby

With Angat’s allocation trimmed to 44 cubic meters per second, Metro Manila is assured the situation is precautionary, the word officials use just before the word they mean.

QUEZON CITY, Philippines (ManilaNews.PH) – The state weather bureau has raised the current El Nino to “very strong,” and Metro Manila’s water bureaucracy responded the way it always responds to a gathering crisis, by holding a series of meetings to choose the next adjective very carefully.

As Manila Bulletin reported, PAGASA now says El Nino has reached very strong intensity, with its peak likely before the year ends. That puts the official classification one rung below the word much of the country has already been using for months. Newspapers have been saying “super.” Schoolteachers have been saying “super.” The tita who stores water in old soda bottles under the sink has been saying “super” since the last one. The government, however, remains at “very strong,” and it would like everyone to stay there with it until further notice.

A Ladder of Words, Climbed One Rung at a Time

The gap between public vocabulary and official vocabulary is managed, ManilaNews.PH has learned, by a little-known body called the Interagency Committee on Hydrological Communication, which meets in a windowless conference room in Diliman to keep the temperature of every press release at exactly room temperature. A copy of its internal escalation guide reads in full:

CLIMATE TERMINOLOGY PROTOCOL, REVISED. Weak: mention in the 5 p.m. bulletin. Moderate: mention in the 5 p.m. bulletin, with a map. Strong: press briefing, with a map and a laser pointer. Very strong: press briefing, map, pointer, and the word “precautionary” no fewer than four times. Super: reserved; use requires the written concurrence of three agencies and one thesaurus. Above super: under study. Current shortlist: “ultra,” “mega,” and “Grabe,” the last pending a ruling on whether Taglish is permitted in a technical bulletin.

“Words have consequences,” said Dr. Teodora Lacson-Arevalo, the committee’s vice chair for Adverbs. “If we say ‘super’ too early, people panic. If we say it too late, people say we should have said ‘super.’ So we say ‘very strong,’ and then we wait, and then we hold a workshop in Tagaytay, where it is cooler and we can think.”

Precautionary, a Word for Every Occasion

The committee’s favorite word got a workout last month. Philstar reported that the National Water Resources Board reduced the water allocation for Metro Manila from Angat Dam to 44 cubic meters per second, down from 50 to 52, with NWRB executive director Sevillo David Jr. saying the cut does not mean it will harshly affect consumers and describing the adjustments as precautionary.

The Diliman Center for Bureaucratic Linguistics has been tracking the word for years. Its latest data set, compiled from government statements issued in Metro Manila since the first El Nino advisory, found the following:

  • “Precautionary” appeared 312 times, most often in sentences that also contained the word “cut.”
  • “Not expected to significantly affect” appeared 188 times, followed in 61 percent of cases by a water interruption schedule.
  • “Normal supply” appeared 140 times, usually in reference to a future date.
  • “Consumers are advised” appeared 97 times, with the advice consisting, in every single instance, of using less water.
  • “Crisis” appeared zero times, the center noting that the word is “available, licensed, and currently in storage at Angat.”

“Precautionary is the most beautiful word in Philippine governance,” said the center’s director, Prof. Wilfredo Agustin-Malvar. “It means we are doing something, and also that nothing has happened, and also that if something happens, we were already doing something. It is three press releases in one word. It is the Swiss Army knife of the press office.”

Where the Water Comes From Now

For anyone worried that the shift means less water reaching their faucet, the official answer is that the system has backups. Philstar listed alternative sources including Laguna de Bay, Upper Wawa Dam and the Marikina River. In a column for The Manila Times asking who pays when the water runs short in a super El Nino, an audit partner noted that Maynilad now relies on Angat for about 83 percent of its supply capacity, down from 100 percent historically, and that utilities have diversified their sources since the 2019 water crisis.

The Inquirer has also published an explainer on how a strong El Nino could threaten Metro Manila’s water supply, which has been shared so widely in Pasig condominium group chats that one building administrator now posts it in the elevator, right next to the notice that the elevator is under maintenance.

Meanwhile, the Manila Times has flagged that parts of Metro Manila, Rizal and Cavite will have water interruptions this week, a development the committee classified, after a three-hour meeting, as “scheduled,” which it distinguishes from “unscheduled” in the same way a dentist distinguishes a filling from a surprise.

Comics Report From the Dry Side

“They tell us to conserve water. Ma’am, I live in a studio in Mandaluyong,” said Tess Villareal, a stand-up comic who performs in Kamuning. “My shower has been conserving water since 2019. It does not spray. It whispers. If I want a strong shower, I have to stand under it and think about my ex until I cry.”

Pasig comic Bong Ilustre said his tita has been preparing since the previous El Nino. “Every bottle she ever bought is full of water and hidden in the house. Under the bed, inside the piano, behind the Santo Nino. If the dry spell skips Metro Manila, she has said she will open a resort.”

Barangay halls, for their part, have been printing conservation posters at speed. The aesthetic will be familiar to anyone who followed the farm.fm account of how motivational quotes and humor replaced the posters at the feed store. One poster in Barangay Pinyahan reads “Every Drop Counts.” Underneath it, in marker, a resident has added “So does every bill.”

Harvesting Rain in the Season Without It

Local governments have been asked to prepare as well. According to the same Manila Times column, the Department of the Interior and Local Government has urged local government units to update their El Nino contingency plans and to promote water recycling and rainwater harvesting. The committee hailed the rainwater guidance as “forward-looking,” since by definition the rain will have to be harvested from somewhere in the future.

A Quezon City councilor’s office, asked how residents should harvest rain during a drought, released a short statement recommending “large containers, positive thinking, and patience.” A follow-up question about which month to start was referred to PAGASA, which referred it back to the councilor’s office, which referred it to the committee, which scheduled a workshop.

Readers abroad have taken an interest. On bohiney.com, where Californian drought coverage has been running for most of a decade, American readers asked whether Metro Manila also has a word for “precautionary” that means “too late.” The committee said the question had been noted and would be answered “at the appropriate rung.”

Tomorrow’s outlook for Metro Manila: hot and dry, with isolated press briefings in the afternoon, a 70 percent chance of the word “precautionary,” and a low-pressure area of public patience forming east of Marikina, expected to intensify overnight and make landfall at the nearest water refilling station.

SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/