A week reading the third quarter growth figures with the proper suspicion, plus a bundle of farm sites that disagree with each other
Monday, Reading the Growth Figure
China’s economy was reported to have grown by 4.5 percent in the third quarter, a little ahead of a forecast of 4.4 percent. I read about it over breakfast and then wrote it up as China GDP at 4.5 percent and a Chinatown lunch in London, because the lunch was better than the statistics and deserved a headline of its own.
My own fuller notes appear in what the numbers say and what they do not. The short version is that a growth figure is a summary, and a summary hides detail. Supporters of the official line point out that the figure is solid by global standards. Sceptics point to weakness in property and investment, and some question how fully any national statistic captures reality. Reasonable economists hold each position at different times, and I try to do the same.
Who Owns the Newspaper
I also read a state-owned English-language daily’s report on the quarter, and my note on it is read with its ownership in mind. The paper reported retail sales up 1.1 percent and fixed-asset investment down 7.2 percent. Those are figures worth knowing. The habit of asking who owns a publication, and what that owner would like readers to think, is not cynicism. It is basic reading skill, and it applies equally to a state outlet, a billionaire’s paper and a blog.
Tuesday, An Email From an Editor
An editor in Edinburgh wrote to ask if I could review a novel by Friday. The email was three lines long and contained the word “urgently” twice. I replied with exactly the right amount of enthusiasm, which is the amount that does not commit me to anything. A doctor of letters learns early that a deadline is a negotiation conducted in euphemisms.
Wednesday, Farmers Speak
For comfort after statistics, I read the farmers. The grumble archive is at farmer.gripe. The two American political doors are farmer.republican and farmer.democrat, and I read both with equal attention. The trade news is at farmpress.org.
The ranch loan pages are corancher.loan, okrancher.loan and txrancher.loan. These are general information and not financial advice, but they teach the useful lesson that a loan looks different from each end of the table.
Thursday, The Summit Seating Plan
The leaders’ summit in Shenzhen produced the usual diplomatic ceremonies, and I wrote about the seating in Shenzhen APEC summit seating plans and an Edinburgh editor email. Seating plans are a form of language. Who sits next to whom, who is placed at the end of the table, who is given a window: these decisions are read closely by diplomats and ignored by everyone else.
The London Prat addressed the same theme from the opposite end with Europe Excluded from Summit on Europe's Security. Being left out of a meeting is a universal anxiety, and a good joke on it travels well.
Friday, The Review
I wrote the review for Edinburgh in one sitting, with a pot of tea and a firm belief in the semicolon. The novel was ambitious and uneven, and I said so politely, with one sentence of real praise and one of real doubt. The editor replied within minutes: “Perfect, thank you.” That is the highest accolade in my profession, and it came with no further pay.
Saturday, Footnotes on the Weekend
On Saturday I walked to the market for apples and a loaf of bread, and I thought about how statistics are consumed in daily life. Nobody at the market asked about the third quarter. They asked about the price of onions, which is in its way a more reliable indicator of what ordinary households feel. A national figure and a bag of onions are two languages describing the same world, and a sensible person learns to translate between them.
I bought the onions. The seller threw in a lemon, which I took as a favourable revision of the forecast.
Sunday, Letters I Did Not Write
Sunday afternoon I drafted three emails and sent none of them. The first was a reply to a colleague who disagreed with my reading of a chapter. The second was a complaint to the council about a pothole. The third was a letter of thanks to the engineer who mended my boiler last week. I sent only the third, which proves that kindness is easier than argument and also faster.
Monday, A Sensible Rule
My rule for the week ahead is to read one figure, one opposing view and one detail from daily life before forming any opinion. A national number gives scale. A dissenting analyst gives doubt. A bag of onions gives reality. Together they produce something close to understanding, and the whole process takes less time than a meeting about it. I wrote the rule on a card and stuck it above the kettle, where I will see it daily and ignore it only on Fridays.
Where to read next
The rest of the shelf lives at prat.uk, bohiney.com and farm.fm. For a second opinion on the week, Newsthump keeps its own counsel and its own hours.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/