Six councils, six results, one 38 percent tie and a pasty that went cold while I refreshed a page for the thirtieth time.
PORT ERIN, Isle of Man – There is a particular kind of loneliness in watching a council by-election result come in on a laptop in a house by the sea, with the tide out, the kettle off and the only other living creature an elderly Manx cat who regards every number as a personal insult.
Early evening: the preparations
I take results night seriously. I had a pasty, a notebook, three biros (two of which work), and a printed list of the six contests, because I do not trust a phone with my emotions. Brenda had messaged the branch group to say she was “not staying up”, which in her case means she was already awake at midnight with a mug.
The whole island is a long way from a ward in Nottinghamshire, and I am aware that to a Manx fisherman a by-election in Bassetlaw is about as relevant as the weather in Ohio. But I am a politics person, and my idea of a wild night is a table of percentages. PollCheck lists six council by-elections on the night, and I knew the one I wanted before I had put the plate down.
Midnight: the results, one by one
I do not want to over-claim, because over-claiming is the vice of my own side’s press releases, which will no doubt contain the word “earthquake” for something that rattled a teacup. So here are the facts as the results page gives them.
- Worksop East, in Bassetlaw: a Reform UK gain from Labour, on 46 percent to Labour’s 37.
- Beechwood and Heath, in Halton: a Reform UK gain from the Liberal Democrats, with Reform on 35 percent, the Liberal Democrats on 26 and Labour on 25.
- Dover Beck, in Newark and Sherwood: a Conservative hold on 42 percent, with Reform second on 34.
- Southwell, in Nottinghamshire: a Conservative hold on 45 percent, with Reform second on 26.
- Mid Argyll, in Argyll and Bute: an SNP gain from an Independent on 46 percent, with Reform on 8.
- St James’s, in Dudley: see below, and bring a calculator.
The Worksop East page is the one I framed in my mind. A gain on 46 percent is a good night in any language. I shouted. The cat left. I am told the neighbours heard me, though one of them says it may have been the wind.
The Dudley problem
This is where I try to be a grown-up. In St James’s, Dudley, the page lists a Labour gain from Reform UK, and it shows Labour on 38 percent and Reform on 38 percent. Conservatives were on 14 percent, with Restore Britain on 7 and the Greens on 3. A tie, on the percentages, that the page nonetheless records as a Labour win.
I do not know how that was settled, and I will not pretend to. Rounded figures can hide a handful of votes, and a page that records a winner has presumably worked from the actual count. What I do know is that my side lost a seat it held, that this is a loss, and that I will not describe it as anything else, which is a personal rule I am hoping to extend to the party’s social media team.
I phoned Priya, who does the branch accounts and never rounds anything, and she said, “It is a tie when they say it is a tie, and not before.” I could hear her putting her tea down. She is the closest we have to a returning officer.
The two the Conservatives kept
Fairness requires that I say a good word for Dover Beck and Southwell, where the Conservatives held and did so with a proper margin, 42 percent to Reform’s 34 in one and 45 to 26 in the other. If you are on my side of the road, that is a polite reminder that second place in two seats is not a revolution, and if you are on the Conservative side, that holding a seat is not a revival.
The Restore Britain figures, around 7 percent in several of these, will be discussed on the right with great calm and no group chats at all. I put my own guess at four group chats and a podcast.
Small hours: why counting is a sport
By the time the last number had settled I had refreshed the page about thirty times, and the pasty was an object of scientific interest. I will say this for a by-election: it asks a very particular skill of you, which is to stay calm while carrying something precious and cold across a long, uneven floor.
That reminded me of a headline on farm.fm about a ranch rodeo adding a calf chase while carrying coffee, with real ranchers sweeping the medals. I have never wanted to enter a rodeo until I read that. I am the sort of person who could carry coffee through a count, up a hill and into a branch meeting without spilling a drop, and then say something quotable about turnout.
I wrote the whole night up for The London Prat, which lets me do that sort of thing in the right tone. If you like your news from a man in a suit with a raised eyebrow, there is a page of British news that arrives with a straight face, and a sensible explainer on what commentary is and what it is not. You can find more of my daily notes at The London Prat whenever you need a second opinion on a number.
I went to bed at last, having decided on one conclusion. The percentages are the percentages. The adjectives are mine.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/