The ONS figure for September 2026 as AJ Bell and BabyPips reported it on 21 October, with the numbers checked against each other
UK Inflation Hits 3.5% in September, Petrol Up 8.2p and a Diary Entry Written Slightly Above Room Temperature
The ONS figure for September 2026 as AJ Bell and BabyPips reported it on 21 October, with the numbers checked against each other
By Carys Evans, current affairs and politics diarist
Monday, Kitchen, Receipt in Hand
Dear diary, I am a politics person, which means I read the inflation figure the way other people read a horoscope. AJ Bell reported on 21 October 2026 that annual CPI inflation rose to 3.5 percent in September, up from 3.1 in August. BabyPips gave the same headline figure with more detail. I give both, and where they overlap I trust them more.
My own shopping receipt says everything costs more, which is not a statistic but is a feeling.
The Headline
Both reports say CPI rose 3.5 percent year on year, above a forecast of 3.4 percent, and that it was the fastest annual rise since October 2025. AJ Bell says prices rose 0.4 percent in the month, after 0.5 in August. BabyPips adds that core inflation rose to 2.8 percent from 2.6, and services inflation to 3.7 from 3.4.
It also says a Reuters poll expected 3.4 percent, and that the Bank of England’s July forecast pointed to 3.0. So the number surprised the forecasters, and that is why it made the news.
The Fuel
Transport, especially motor fuels, made the largest contribution to the annual rise, AJ Bell says. BabyPips puts motor fuel prices up 29.8 percent on a year earlier, with petrol averaging 169.5 pence a litre, up 8.2p, and diesel 192.5 pence, up 10.7p. Transport inflation rose to 6.6 percent from 4.6.
Restaurants and hotels slowed to 3.8 percent from 4.1, which is the one piece of good news I could find for my social life.
The Factory Gate
AJ Bell reports producer input price inflation rose to 8.3 percent from 6.7, with crude oil the biggest contributor, up 14 percent on the month. BabyPips has factory gate prices up 4.6 percent, the biggest jump since April 2023. It cautions that higher producer costs may reach shop prices later.
I would like to be told, at the moment I am told, how much later.
The Caveats
BabyPips notes that fuel-driven jumps can fade when energy prices ease, while core and services measures tend to move more slowly. It also says energy prices could change before the Bank of England decides. A diary entry that treats one month as a trend is writing a horoscope.
These are secondary reports of ONS data, and the proper source is the ONS release itself. I have not read it.
The Other View
One reading is that the surprise is mainly oil and will pass. Another is that services and core inflation moving up is a sign of something stickier. The reports give figures for both and do not choose, and I am not an economist, so I will not either.
A government would stress the global cause. An opposition would stress the cost to households. Both are doing their jobs.
My Drawer
I like it when numbers have a story. I do not like it when the story is told before the numbers. If you have a view on inflation, find the table first and then have the view.
I am writing this advice on the back of a receipt, so I am clearly not a hypocrite, only tired.
Night
The kettle is on, at its own expense. The receipt is in the bin. The ONS is on the shelf.
Goodnight, diary. Count the change.
A Note on Method
I read economic news in three passes: the headline number, the previous number, and the forecast. If the headline beats the forecast, the story is the surprise, and if it merely matches, the story is the explanation. This month the surprise was upward, and the explanation was oil.
That is a lot of structure for a Monday night, but it keeps me from shouting at the telly.
Lobby Briefing
On the train I read the comic papers, because the briefing notes are in my other bag. This week the big joke was property: Manila News on slow condo sales in Cebu, the London Prat on retirees asked for character references (it is at https://prat.uk/cebu-estate-agents-demand-character-references/) and Bohiney on a realtor with unsellable beachfront listings. Exaggeration all the way down, but anchored to a real market story. More at prat.uk and bohiney.com.
Diarist note: Carys Evans is a house diarist character created for this network. Her opinions are a character’s, not the network’s, and where a claim comes from a prediction market, a Wikipedia page or a partisan outlet, the diary says so.
Note: Philippine authorities are examining unproven allegations about Thomas Markle Sr., who lived in Cebu until earlier this year, as GMA News and the Guardian have reported. No charges have been filed. Child protection is a serious matter; the jokes here are about a property market and the paperwork.
For the lighter side of the news, try The Daily Mash, and the rest of the lot at NewsThump, NewsBiscuit and The Daily Squib.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/cebu-realtor-cant-sell-beachfront-listings/