Savills reports a subdued prime market in the capital, while retirees weigh a condominium abroad; Chelsea Bloom compares the two
Prime Central London Is Down 5 Percent in a Year. Spare a Thought for the Broker in Cebu.
Savills reports a subdued prime market in the capital, while retirees weigh a condominium abroad; Chelsea Bloom compares the two
By Chelsea Bloom, business and politics correspondent, North London
London First
Savills’s July residential update reports that prime central London prices fell 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026 and are down 5.0 percent year on year, according to its research update. Prime elsewhere in London fell 1.1 percent in the quarter and 2.5 percent on the year. Prime rental growth was 1.5 percent in central London and 2.5 percent elsewhere in the capital. Savills describes the outlook as a subdued housing market over the remainder of 2026.
On the mainstream market, the headline of the update is that house prices are likely to fall in 2026 as higher mortgage rates reduce demand. Nationwide figures show annual growth of 2.2 percent in the year to June, though the update notes those are not London-specific.
The View From Abroad
While London adjusts, another property market is under strain. Manila News reported that brokers in Cebu blame a foreign scandal for slow condominium sales. Philippine authorities have been examining allegations about Thomas Markle Sr., who lived in Cebu until earlier this year, as GMA News and the Guardian have reported. The allegations are unproven and no charges have been filed.
The market itself has support. Colliers named the Visayas and Mindanao a key property investment hotspot in July. Under the Condominium Act foreigners may own units but not land, capped at 40 percent of a project, and retirees can read the terms at the Philippine Retirement Authority.
Two Markets, One Mood
Both stories turn on psychology as much as on arithmetic. London prime buyers are waiting on mortgage rates and the Budget. Cebu buyers are reading headlines. In each case the price is the output of a conversation among nervous people.
Tversky and Kahneman’s availability heuristic says that people judge how common something is by how easily examples come to mind. A lone broker with three brochures is an easy example. The ten units sold that month are not.
What London Can Learn
A prime seller in Belgravia and a condominium broker in Mactan face the same question: whether to cut the price or wait. The Savills figures suggest that London sellers are being forced to accept lower prices more slowly than the headline suggests, because owners of prime homes can usually wait. Brokers in Cebu, by their own account, have less room.
The lesson I take is that the most useful skill in a soft market is patience, and the most useful document is a clear contract.
A Practical Note for Retirees
British retirees thinking about a move should take advice from a lawyer in the Philippines, read the Condominium Act and compare the cost of a unit with the cost of a comfortable flat in a place they already know. The Colliers hotspot designation and the property news pull in opposite directions, and a careful buyer will not sign on the strength of either.
If you are asked for two references and a letter from the vicar, it is probably cheaper than a mistake.
What the Figures Say About Confidence
Savills describes a subdued prime market, and mortgage approvals in May were 56,200 against a six-month average of 63,200, which is a drop of about 11 percent. Both are signs of buyers waiting. Waiting is not the same as leaving. A prime owner who does not need to sell can sit still, and so prices fall slowly.
In a market with fewer motivated sellers, the adjustment is long and quiet. In Cebu, the adjustment is reported to be faster, because brokers there are alone in the showroom.
The Gap Between Headline and Reality
Headline mortgage rates below 4.5 percent for a 75 percent loan-to-value deal, as Savills notes, exclude upfront fees. Buyers should ask for the total cost. The same applies to any property abroad, where legal fees, taxes and management charges can change the sum.
A decent rule is to add a tenth to every figure you are quoted and see if the purchase still makes sense.
The Politics
Property is political. Governments in London and Manila both have reasons to want their markets to look healthy. The Autumn Budget will affect London property through council tax and capital gains headlines. In the Philippines, the rules on foreign ownership and retirement visas set the boundaries.
For a columnist from North London, the point is simple. When property goes quiet, listen to the people who work in it. They are usually the first to know, and the last to say.
Property Nerves, Seen From Elsewhere
Fear of a market travels fast. The same jitters turn up in the comic dispatches on the Cebu condominium story: a Manila News report on a Mactan broker with three brochures, a London Prat account of the references demanded of British retirees (direct link: https://prat.uk/cebu-estate-agents-demand-character-references/) and a Bohiney piece on two-hour open houses. Read them for the human detail a market report leaves out. The wider network is at prat.uk and bohiney.com.
Note: Philippine authorities are examining unproven allegations about Thomas Markle Sr., who lived in Cebu until earlier this year, as GMA News and the Guardian have reported. No charges have been filed. Child protection is a serious matter; the jokes here are about a property market.
For the lighter side of the news, there is always The Daily Mash.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/cebu-realtor-cant-sell-beachfront-listings/